Greece Now Pays Less to Borrow Than France
Greece's 10-year government bond yield has fallen below France's, a remarkable reversal that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. France's 10-year yield climbed back toward 4.9% on Monday after violent weekend protests rattled bond markets, while Greece's stood near 4.4%. At the peak earlier this month, France's yield hit 4.99%, its highest level since 2002.
France is carrying a debt load of 3.6 trillion euros, equal to 119% of GDP, and its government is forecasting a deficit of 5.4% of GDP this year. The 2027 budget calls for a 54 billion euro fiscal adjustment to bring that deficit down to 5% next year, but a deeply divided National Assembly is making that fight ugly. Weekend demonstrations over the rising cost of living and declining public services have added fuel to the fire.
Greek debt as a share of GDP is still the highest in Europe, but investors are pricing in the direction of travel.
Greece's situation looks different largely because of the trajectory, not the raw numbers. Athens ran a budget surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2025, and its debt fell by more than nine percentage points of GDP in a single year. Greek debt as a share of GDP is still the highest in Europe, but investors are pricing in the direction of travel.
Greece's average debt maturity of 18.28 years also acts as a cushion. Most of what Greece owes was locked in at older, lower rates, so rising yields on new borrowing hit the state budget more slowly. France, by contrast, must refinance 340 billion euros in bonds next year alone, much of it pandemic-era debt now coming due at far higher rates.
Analysts caution that Greece is not borrowing cheaply in any absolute sense. The cost of new borrowing remains elevated. But the gap that defined European finance for most of the past 15 years has flipped, and markets are paying attention.
